Your daily plan, live through the session: the half that keeps you disciplined while price is moving.
Every macro input that should have helped gold Tuesday finally moved in its favor: September hike odds fell from 80% to 60%, the 2-year broke a level it had rejected three times, the Dollar erased its entire three-session recovery, and oil kept falling as the geopolitical premium unwound. Gold did nothing with it, closing essentially flat after reopening near 4,056 and rallying into 4,077 before sellers responded. The reason is real yields: DFII10 has been flat at 2.43% for three straight sessions, the one number that hasn't moved despite everything else breaking gold's way, and until it does the bear case survives. Tuesday's flow also built roughly 2,075 lots of demand 90 to 167 points below spot, in the contract expiring Friday rather than tomorrow, positioning that points at Thursday and Friday's GDP, PCE, expiry and month-end rather than Wednesday's Fed decision. Wednesday is priced calm, both wings of the near-dated chain show modest skew and a tight box, which means tomorrow is the waiting room and Thursday-Friday is where the real move gets decided.
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